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For Loren Taylor 2025 Oakland Mayoral Special Election Is Deja Vu All Over Again Vs Barbara Lee
Well, two years ago, Oakland Councilmember Sheng Thao overtook Former Councilmember Taylor by 667 votes and became the 51st Mayor of Oakland. The rank choice system was revealed to have way too many flaws, but the Oakland Electorate elected to keep it. And so we have this possible new problematic vote.
Today, counting rank choice votes, Taylor has a 1,118 vote lead over Former Congresswoman Barbara Lee. Back in 2022, I wrote this;
Councilmember Taylor started out 41252 votes to Councilmember Thao’s 39654 votes for first choice. But when Rank Choice Votes were added, that changed to 56841 for Sheng Thao versus 56161 for Councilmember Taylor. But what’s interesting is what is behind the reason for Sheng Thao’s rise: an outsized number of Rank Choice Voting votes for Sheng Thao from fellow candidate Allyssa Victory.
Then, in 2022, the initial difference between Loren and Sheng was just 1,598 votes before Sheng closed the gap. This time the difference is 480 votes less; that means Barbara Lee has a 480 vote gap to close. The problem is no one knows how many outstanding votes are out there to be counted.
Also, it’s said that flatland voters give more votes to progressive candidates than do the hills, and are the last to be counted.
So, the wind seems to point toward Barbara Lee, but even then there’s no great line of data to make the turnover of lead a certainty.
Let’s explore that in this livestream.
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